You already know that we have a surplus outfielder, assuming that one of Gardner or Melky plays center field instead of Nick Swisher. As the Yankees head into spring training, writers are beginning to assume that Swisher is the choice pick to sit on a normal day. Disregarding defense for the moment (Swisher is better), let’s look at the numbers:
- Swisher career: .244/..354/.451, 112 OPS+
- Nady career: .280/.335/.458, 108 OPS+
Now, they appear to be pretty similar. Swisher probably is a bit better, but there isn’t a lot of difference here. Nady is coming off the best season of his career, while Swisher is coming off the worst. Last season:
- Swisher 2008: .219/.332/.410, 92 OPS+, .249 BABIP
- Nady 2008: .305/.357/.510, 128 OPS+, .334 BABIP
Nady again looks like the favorite, but it seems clear that Swisher was very unlucky in 2008. His raw patence and power scores remained very solid. If you take his poor luck and boost his batting average 25 points to his career average, you get .244/.357/.435 – which is below his career average, but not by much. Swisher entered 2008 coming off two 125 OPS+ or better season. Nady also got a tad bit lucky on his career year.
There’s one big reason, in my mind, to hand Nady the bulk of playing time. Nady just barely missed Type A status in last year’s Elias rankings. If he has another year like last, he’ll not only be a very valuable player, but he’ll also reward the Yankees with two draft picks following his departure. If the Yankees don’t consider that important, then the numbers say that they should let Nady and Swisher battle for the spot in spring training. When you factor in defense, they are very similar in value. By no means should Swisher be immediately banished to the bench.
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I think one element you are leaving out is which one helps the bench more, and I think the answer is undoubtedly Swisher. He is a switch hitter and fields more positions. I would prefer if they just played them both and sat Gardner/Melky, but it does not seem likely. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Great point re: Nady’s potential Type A status rewarding the Yankees with two draft picks. I haven’t heard that idea much, if at all. Anthony G.(Quote)
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Moshe makes a good point. I guess the best option is to let them fight for RF in spring training, and whoever loses rides the pine. The only position that Nady can’t play that Swisher can is 1B and that is locked up anyway. No, I’m not counting CF. Cashman said when they traded for him that Swish will not be the CFer, and given his poor defense at the position, I would be inclined to agree. Justin(Quote)
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Moshe: I don’t think it matters how many positions Swisher plays in this discussion. Say Swisher starts and Nady is on the bench. Teixeira needs a day off. Swisher moves to 1b and Nady plays left field. Say we need a CF. Swisher moves to center and Nady plays right. It just requires the extra position switch.
Being a switch hitter? I suppose that is important, but the occasional pinch hit for Melky or Gardner against a right handed pitcher I don’t think makes a big difference compared to the advantages in playing time to the starter. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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Oh, it definitely isn’t enough to base the decision on it. My point was that if you believe Swish and Nady are equal as everyday players, considering which one is more suited for a bench role makes sense. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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I think Swisher and Nady are two players with their careers going in opposite directions. Maybe you aren’t familiar with the progression Nady has made over the past 5 years, especially vs Righties.
2004 vs R .178 .213 .311 .524
vs L .344 .417 .563 .979
2005 vs R .223 .270 .431 .700
vs L .323 .400 .452 .852
2006 vs R .263 .312 .424 .736
vs L .336 .418 .551 .969
2007 vs R .274 .322 .479 .802
vs L .295 .356 .463 .819
2008 vs R .317 .357 .529 .886
vs L .262 .361 .444 .805
Check out that OPS vs Righties year by year. He has steadily improved from being a platoon player who only hit lefties, to one who hit Righties better than Lefties last season. While that may have been an up year for him, if he was to revert to his 2007 line he would still be a fine everyday player and a good replacement for Abreu, especially when you factor in his value as a (slightly better than league average) fielder, and Abreu being the worst RF in the AL by most measures.
Another Nady misconception, that ‘he’s not an AL player’
1st Half 07 .291 .344 .504 .848
2nd Half 07 .255 .303 .425 .728
1st Half 08 .321 .377 .525 .901
2nd Half 08 .284 .333 .492 .825
Also, the middling second half he had leads many Yankee fans to believe that he’s ‘not an AL player’, but he actually had a similarly weak (.80 drop off in OPS both years) 2nd half in 2007 in the NL, which could say something about his conditioning or training regimen, but not the league. Its also worth noting that he only became a full time player in 2008 (607 PAs), he had about 500 PAs in 2007/2006 and 356 PAs in 2005. Again, progressing from a platoon player to an everyday player. Steve(Quote)
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
February 5th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
All good points Steve. I think Yankee fans are dismissing Nady pretty quickly, as I hear all the time that Swish is more valuable. While that may be true for the future, in 09 Nady is just as, if not more, likely to have a big year. Moshe Mandel(Quote)
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Mark Da Rosa Reply:
February 5th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
This problem that we have will be solved based on the performances coming from both players during spring training and the regular season. If one is struggling wouldn’t it make sense to maybe give him a game off and start the other player. Whoever has a better Spring Training and regular season offensively and defensively, that should be the starter even if the decision takes longer than expected. Mark Da Rosa(Quote)
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I don’t think any of the outfielders are going to “sit” per se. I think there will be a rotation. One of Joe G’s strengths, actually, is rotating guys in and out of the lineup and keeping guys fresh. Swish’s versatility provides a perfect opportunity to rest Damon and Matsui every 4th day and shuffle out BG & Nady against bad matchups. Tom Gaffney(Quote)
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