The incredible Josh Kalk over at THT is doing some fascinating work with Pitchf/x data, and his latest installment is no exception. Although you are going to have to read his article to understand his methodology, the basic gist of the study was to try to utilize the data to better comprehend pitching injuries and the effects of overuse. The last paragraph in the piece should be heartening for Yankees fans:
I want to close by looking at the pitcher who was ridden as hard as any in the game last year, C.C. Sabathia.
Sabathia gobbled up innings late in the year as the Brewers desperately attempted to make the playoffs. There was much talk about the Brewers’ right to use a rented player this way, and about then-manager Ned Yost in particular.
Near the end of the season, I looked at these effects and found that Sabathia didn’t seem to be having any issues. With this new metric, we can ask how close Sabathia came to the injury zone. The answer: not very. His highest value was a mere 0.13, ironically on the last day of the season against the Cubs, clinching the playoffs for the Brewers. This is very good news for Yankees fans who shouldn’t worry that the Brewers wore Sabathia out. And this probably means Sabathia will be able to handle a large load this season as well.
That is great news, as I am sure that this will be raised as an issue at some point during Spring Training. The Yankees need Sabathia to give them 200 ace quality innings, considering the injury concerns that plague the rest of the rotation. If Kalk is right, we do not have to worry about CC, and can busy ourselves with worrying about AJ and Joba. Kalk’s research is cutting edge, and could change the way that teams deal with pitchers should his results bear out in 2009. It should be an interesting sabermetric development to track over the next few seasons.
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Yeah if this guy can accurately calculate how close pitchers are coming to injuries then it is definitely going to change everything. No more Pavanos, but it could mean that you’ll get no more Joba’s in the draft. If teams knew exactly how much the risk was they might be more likely to take a chance and guys like him won’t fall so far in the draft.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
February 17th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
I dont think it is that advanced yet. If you read the article, he speaks of the current limitations, but I think this kind of data is definitely headed towards limiting injury.
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