Baseball Prospectus’ latest article for ESPN lists their top breakout hitting candidates for 2009. There are three Nationals listed, one of whom is Elijah Dukes. Here is what they had to say about him:
Elijah Dukes, Nationals, OF (.278/.386/.486, 4.0 WARP, 54 percent breakout rate)
Dukes was dumped by the Rays due to some scary off-field problems, but the Nationals took a chance by buying low, and their reward was the team’s most productive hitter last season, at least when he was available. Unfortunately, Dukes made three separate trips to the disabled list and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery, but he showed excellent power (13 homers), plate discipline (one walk for every 6.7 PA), and speed (13 steals in 17 attempts) in 81 games, while establishing some order in his life beyond the diamond. Forecast to match last year’s .302 EqA, the highest among qualifiers, he should provide a much-needed jolt to the Nationals’ offense, though as you’ll see, he’s not alone here.
Lastings Milledge is listed as well, but I doubt that he would be available. The Nationals have a crowded outfield, with Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Milledge, and Dukes. Dukes seems to be the most likely to be traded, and his malcontent status is likely to keep any return for him fairly low. With the questions that the Yankees have in CF and the fact that most of their outfielders are free agents following the season, the Yankees would be well served by looking into a deal for Dukes. A deal built around Ian Kennedy may be a good starting point, with the Yankees throwing in another upper level prospect and some filler.
What do you think about Dukes? Would you try to deal for him, or does his violent history scare you?
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Eh, I wouldn’t do it. This guy is nuts and would probably explode in NY. Isn’t he on probation for threatening to kill his girlfriend? Chris H.(Quote)
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But his upside is so great. depending on what it would take, I would try it. KGsturnz0r217(Quote)
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Chris H. Reply:
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:52 pm
He does have good upside, but the Rays, who are great at evaluating talent, let him go for a reason. I wouldn’t mind trading for him, though I wouldn’t be willing to give up a lot for a guy who has been arrested multiple times and who has anger issues (imagine him at Fenway?). Chris H.(Quote)
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This all depends on what he costs us. I’d imagine that the Nationals brought him in because they recognize his immense upside and wouldn’t want to trade him for nothing. Chip(Quote)
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He’s a terrible person who has been caught multiple times beating his wife and children. That won’t play well in a big media market. He’s a ticking time bomb if you ask me. EJ Fagan(Quote)
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The biggest problem with him joining the team, I think, would be Joe Girardi. Despite the pool tournaments today he seems like a pretty uptight guy. How would he react to half the stuff this guy does? Plus the Yankees as an organization, since Gary Sheffield, seem to stay away with guys with issues. I feel like that was part of the reason they dealt Jose Tabata.
Personally I don’t think getting guys like Dukes is a big deal, but I just don’t see the Yankees doing it. Bronx Baseball Daily(Quote)
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