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The New York Times ran an interesting column yesterday on the idea of there being a national pastime and considering whether the NFL had usurped that title. On the one hand, many of the economic numbers point to NFL dominance, and polls show that people prefer football to baseball. In the video game era, football speaks more to our need for fast moving action, as well as providing a timed game with a fairly fixed runtime. In baseball’s defense, the language of baseball has infiltrated the national jargon at a much higher level, as the great Joe Posnanski points out in this wonderful post. More tangibly, MLB partisans will point to attendance figures:

But plenty of people go to Major League Baseball games, which is why, much like the game’s chroniclers, M.L.B. prefers to consider the argument with a wide-angle lens. Asked why baseball still deserves to be called the national pastime, partisans will cite one figure: 78.5 million. That is the attendance total recorded by Major League Baseball for the 2008 regular season. By comparison, the N.F.L.’s regular-season attendance was just over 17 million. Yes, football has a shorter season, but how can you call Major League Baseball less popular if it sells four times as many tickets?

And those numbers don’t include minor league baseball, which last year reached a record attendance of 43.2 million — its fifth record-setting year in a row.

Of course, without defining what being the national pastime entails, it is hard to judge which of these sports actually deserves the title. Regardless of which one gets the ultimately meaningless designation, the NFL does have MLB beat in one particular area. The Super Bowl is an epic event each season, with millions of casual to non fans tuning in to watch the big game. The World Series has significantly lower ratings, and generates a much lower level of interest. Of course, being that the Super Bowl is a single game while the Series is multiple events does contribute to that disparity, as interest gets lost and diffused over a long series. Jayson Stark of ESPN discussed this issue with some sports marketing people, with the goal of coming up with solutions to improve the World Series. They came up with various points, a few of which I want to highlight.

They talked about turning Game 1 of the World Series into a cultural event that is the biggest baseball day of the year. Their plan for accomplishing this included stressing the history of the game in the same manner that the Yankees did at the All-Star game, stressing the human stories associated with the involved players like the NFL or the Olympics do, and involving musical guests and concerts to further involve casual fans. Most of these seem alright, although I like the fact that the World Series is solely about baseball, with little of the drivel associated with the Super Bowl. However, if the goal is to bring in the causal fan because the hardcore fan will be involved regardless, then these seem to be initiatives that may entice some more people to watch.

They discuss some more ways to get fans directly involved, such as using currently technology to allow fans to predict the next pitch or play, and forming a fantasy baseball league for the MLB playoffs. However, the best suggestions that they make have to do with timing:

This event needs earlier starting times, and Bud Selig agrees. On weekends, it needs a Super Bowl-type game time (6:30 p.m. on the East Coast) to enable the whole world to watch from start to finish. And Selig is pushing for that, as well.
And the October schedule needs to be tightened to dodge those arctic weather fronts, keep teams in a more normal baseball rhythm and build toward a smoother World Series crescendo. Selig says his sport is working on all that, too, by the way.

The games start at 7:00 PM on the East Coast all season, and there is no reason that the start time should change for the playoffs. Games that start too late cut out hugh swaths of a potential audience, as anyone out of the 16-40 age range is headed to bed by the fourth inning. It seems like such a simple fix, and hopefully it will be made soon, as MLB is losing an entire generation of sleeping younger fans to the NFL and their afternoon start times.

The second part of that suggestion is equally valid. The regular season has teams playing 6 or 7 consecutive games without a day off. The playoffs should have two travel days in each seven game series, and that is all. Three off days in these series makes for a disjointed schedule that loses momentum and results in more weather issues. If the World Series had been a week earlier this season, we would not have had the farce that was Game 5.

Do you have any suggestions for improving the World Series? Do you think it is just fine as is?

Feb 012009

While Derek Jeter’s UZR in 2007 was -18.4—worst in the AL—his UZR in 2008 was -0.4. Basically, from a defensive standpoint, although Jeter does not possess an above average or even average glove at his position, he was a much better SS this past season. In fact, ’08 was his best defensive season since 2002, when he was actually above average (according to UZR), albeit barely. So, whereas Jeter was the worst in the AL in 2007, he was actually in the middle of the SS pack this year, as Johnny Peralta, Michael Young and Yuniesky Betancourt were all worse, defensively.

In order to prep for the 2008 season, I remember reading that Jeter went through a different workout regimen in order to strengthen his legs (A-Rod spoke of it in February). Maybe that helped him a bit after a ton of off-season criticism regarding his defensive play.

Tyler Kepner checks in with Bobby’s agent, Peter Greenberg. The Mariners, the Mets and the Dodgers seem like Bobby’s only realistic suitors, at this point.

Feb 012009

Fangraphs has a great feature where it lists 3 different projections for each player, CHONE, Marcel, and Bill James. Bill James, the Yoda of sabermetricians, everyone knows about and the other two, you can read about, here, if you’re interested. Nothing is 100% accurate, of course, but it’s fun to look at, especially when your team acquires a couple of big guns like the Yankees have recently.

The one thing these projections really don’t take into account is team changes, so the wins they project for each starter are based upon past totals which will obviously change when they switch to a team with a higher powered offense. I figure it will be fun to project the win totals ourselves. Just for kicks, I’m posting the numbers at random without names, see if you can guess the names yourself, based on the numbers (answers after the jump).

Projection #1:    ERA    WHIP    K/9    BB/9    Innings

CHONE                  3.39     1.26    9.98    3.48      101
Marcel                    3.23     1.25    9.32    3.26        85
Bill James:           No Bill James projection available

Projection #2:    ERA    WHIP    K/9    BB/9    Innings

Bill James:            3.48     1.23     7.69    2.63        240
CHONE                  3.41     1.18      7.89    1.83        211
Marcel                   3.22     1.16      8.49    2.13        211

Projection #3:    ERA    WHIP    K/9    BB/9    Innings

Bill James:             3.90     1.33     6.97    2.39      192
CHONE :                 4.32     1.43     6.89    2.91      167
Marcel:                   4.48     1.44     6.74   2.89      183

Projection #4:    ERA    WHIP    K/9    BB/9    Innings

Bill James:             3.70    1.33     4.14     2.61      200
CHONE :                 4.47    1.49     4.80    2.84       133
Marcel:                   3.79    1.31     4.96    2.91       127

Projection #5:    ERA    WHIP    K/9    BB/9    Innings

Bill James:             3.62    1.28    8.76    1.59         224
CHONE :                 3.88    1.34    8.84    1.69         167
Marcel:                   3.97    1.31    8.71    1.71         187

Continue reading »

Pavano Peeved

Posted by Chris H. at 1:52 pm 9 Responses »
Feb 012009

From Andrew Marchand (ESPN):

Carl Pavano didn’t pitch much for Joe Torre in his four years with the Yankees, but he has fired some tongue-and-cheek heat at his former manager over “The Yankees Years.”

In the book that Torre teamed with Sports Illustrated Tom Verducci to write, Torre says that Pavano’s Yankee teammates “hated” him, Pavano was “skittish to talk to and that Pavano was even rude to his mother.

“I am extremely disappointed that someone I had a lot of respect for would make these type of comments in his upcoming book,” said Pavano, in a statement released to 1050 ESPN New York through his agent, Tom O’Connell. “I wish nothing but the best for Joe Torre and my former Yankee teammates, but with that said it does explain why I haven’t received any Christmas cards from Joe the last few years.”

In the Yankees Years, Torre is quoted directly saying, “The players all hated [Pavano.] It was no secret.”

Torre said that Pavano had no sense of responsibility and was “always a little skittish” when you spoke to him. Finally, Torre and Verducci relayed a story when Pavano first joined the Yankees. His mother showed up to the Stadium with an “NY” painted on her face. Pavano, according to the book, said, “Get that crap off your face. You’re embarrassing me.”

How did this guy ever scoop Alyssa Milano? Then again, her track record with baseball players has always been rather suspect

(props to RAB)

Feb 012009

From MLBTR by way of RAB, we get the word that Melky Cabrera is out of options. For the uninitiated, Rob Neyer’s amazing transaction primer explains the “option” concept:

After three years as a pro, a player must be protected on a team’s 40-man roster, or he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Once he’s served those three years, and assuming he is added to the 40-man roster, his club then has what are called “options” on him.

When a player is on the 40-man roster but not on the 25-man Major League roster, he is on “optional assignment.” One common misconception about the rules is that a player may only be “optioned out” three times. Actually, each player has three option years, and he can be sent up and down as many times as the club chooses within those three seasons.

When you hear that a player is “out of options,” that means he’s been on the 40-man roster during three different seasons, beginning with his fourth as a pro, and to be sent down again he’ll have to clear waivers.

Basically, Melky cannot be freely passed down to Scranton anymore, as he must pass through waivers first. Considering that his name has come up frequently in trade talks, I have to believe that he would be claimed by somebody were the Yankees to send him down. Melky has one last shot to show the Yankees that he belongs. If he fails, the Melk man may find himself trying to deliver in a different city.

Feb 012009

Yankees fans, like most fans, form judgments on players very quickly. A prospect makes an error or gives up a homer (or four) in his first few games, and he’s is branded as garbage and tossed aside as a bust or a “trade chip” (give me Utley and Howard for Melky, Kennedy, and maybe Edwar. Is that DeSalvo dude still on the team? Throw him in too). Unfortunately, management often acts with similar haste, and teams that put plenty of time and effort into a player’s development watch as another club reaps the benefit. Giving up on a prospect who has had plenty of minor league success after a few hundred AB’s or a couple of starts is short-sighted and a waste of resources. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs used players such as Elijah Dukes and Carlos Quentin to make this point, and I think Carlos Pena, Gavin Floyd, and  Brandon Phillips fit the model as well. As Cameron says:

Organizations aren’t the only ones. Fans, too, often give up on players who don’t immediately hit like they did in the minors, as they only see the struggles and usually didn’t see the successes. However, giving up on a young player with a good minor league track record based on a few hundred at-bats is hardly ever the right call.

The point? Try to be a bit more patient with guys like Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. There was a reason for their extreme success at the minor league level, and their talent should shine out eventually. Otherwise, we may end up watching them pitch with success for another club in a few years.

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