One question that has yet to be resolved about the Yankees’ starting rotation for 2009 is the number of innings that Joba Chamberlain can be expected to log in the rotation. Tim Dierkes tries to answer that question:
I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain’s 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:
* Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175
* Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160
* Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155
* Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145
* Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142
* Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142
* Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6
* Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140
* Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6
* Keith Law, ESPN: 125
* Jon Heyman, SI: 109The average comes to 142.9 innings.
I would like to see Joba touch at the upper end of that range. Regardless, it seems pretty clear that nobody expects a 200 inning season from Chamberlain in 2009. This provides even more support for the position that the Yankees need to add an innings eater at the back of the rotation, as injury concerns and inning ceilings limit Joba, A.J. Burnett, and to a lesser extent, C.M. Wang. Tony makes the argument for Andy Pettitte below.
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I would honestly be surprised if he got past 140 innings. In fact, I may even be scared if he went that far. For the kid with the golden arm, it seems like the buildup to 200 innings could take 2 full years, at least.
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I dont know, I think I would be alright with 150. It is such an inexact science, these innings limits, that it is hard to just put in a hard cutoff and say “after that point, it becomes too much.”
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I agree, as I’ve been too devout in my following of the 30-inning rule. I wonder what they’ll do if they make the playoffs…
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Can you imagine Mike Francesa if the Yanks shut Joba down a week before the ALCS against Boston or something. It would be epic, and it would probably be right.
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My guess is that they’ll put Hughes on the same schedule in AAA and just skip Joba every third or fourth start, substituting Hughes. I can’t imagine they’ll just shut Joba down for a month in the middle of the season.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
January 26th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
I dont know about that. How do you move Hughes on and off of the 25 man, and who moves for him?
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