In all the excitement and joy of the 2009 championship season, there was one area of the club that simply was not very much fun. Joba Chamberlain’s starts over the last two months of the season were excruciating to watch, as the Yankees limited his innings to protect him arm. After all that, it would be quite frustrating to hear that the Yankees still overused him and that he is at risk for an injury. However, according to fantasy site Razzball’s well researched list of 20 pitchers at risk, Joba is in fact in danger of injury or weakened performance.

The criteria for getting on the list include having the previous season being your first full one as a starter, adding upwards of 700 pitches over the prior season, and extensive use of the slider, and Joba meets all three standards. Now, this system is by no means perfect, and the author of the study is still tinkering with the criteria. That said, I do think that the results can teach us something about the Yankees approach to young arms.

Whether it is Razzball’s system or the Verducci effect, Joba exceeded the totals that most freely available systems would have allowed him in 2009. As I have said a number of times in the past, it seems that the Yankees are a bit more liberal with their pitchers than people like Verducci would be. They tend to allow a jump of 40-45 innings over the previous career high, and do not seem to have an overall pitch limit. This is likely based on the results from a proprietary calculation on pitcher injuries and risk. This is an area where research has been largely incomplete, so it is hard to say whether the Yankees are being prudent enough. Hopefully, the results on Joba will help confirm the club’s process as reasonable and adequate.

Photo: Kathy Willens

Although he is entrenched in the much-discussed competition for the fifth rotation spot this spring, right-hander, Phil Hughes, will continue to experiment with his changeup, in the hopes that it will become a reliable fixture in his pitch repertoire. “I’m trying to get my changeup down to where it can be a useful pitch for me,” said Hughes, after throwing 10 changeups during yesterday’s 2 2/3 inning-outing against Detroit. “It’s never going to get there if I don’t throw it,” he added. If he can master it, or at least increase its employment and effectiveness, even marginally, the changeup should be a most valuable weapon for Hughes in 2010 and beyond, particularly versus left-handed opponents.

In his short big-league career (192 2/3 innings), left-handed hitters have had some fun facing the young righty, posting a .274/.368/.450 slash line against him. The cutter that Hughes adopted last season, darting in on lefties, helps with that issue, though the change, sinking out of the zone, away and down, against lefty batters, should help him improve further. As stated by Hughes, “You get used to throwing changeups to lefties because there’s no risk in it. If you bounce it to your arm side, it’s not big deal. With a right-hander, you’ve really got to finish the pitch.” Hopefully, come the end of exhibition play, Hughes’ change will be refined to the point where it is an actual weapon for him this year.

Photo by the AP

A little more than a week ago, I posted an article that was a relatively sobering look at everyone’s favorite prospect, Jesus Montero. In that article, I used information/got inspiration from a FanGraphs article, showing what Jesus Montero would be worth to the Yankees per year for his cost controlled years if he spent all his time at DH. The result was about a three win player, which is very nice for a cost controlled guy.

Of course, though, Jesus is determined to stick at catcher. So today, I’m going to be a bit more rosy and bullish in my projections of Jesus than I was in my previous article. I will adjust the calculations to assume a two different playing time scenarios:

1. Full time catcher (~120 games).
2. Split catcher/1B/DH (think Victor Martinez).

For defense, which Smith alludes to in the comments, I’ll assume two things as well:

1. He’s at best a zero run backstop.
2. He’s a Mike Piazza/Jorge Posada type back there, so we’ll call it, as Smith does -10 or so (it will be fewer negative runs for playing time scenario #2.

For offense, I’m going to the .379 wOBA across 650 PAs I laid out in my first post.

For the most positive of scenarios, we’ll run situation one: a full time, zero run catcher. After catching 120 games, His positional adjustment would be 8.2 per Smith. So, running our WAR calculation, we get 5.10 WAR. Now, that’s assuming that he’s a zero run defender behind the plate, which isn’t likely to happen. Adjusting for a -10 run defense, we get 4.14 WAR, still a good mark. In fact, that mark would’ve made him the third most valuable catcher in the AL, behind Joe Mauer (8.1) and Victor Martinez (who played 85 games at catcher; 4.9 WAR).

Speaking of Martinez, let’s say he does something like Victor did in 2009–85 games catching, 70 games at first base. Using Martinez’s position adjustment of 0.6, Montero would produce (assuming 0 runs at first and -7 behind the plate) 3.71 WAR. Of course, Jesus could always be better at first base. Like Smith does, we’ll call Jesus +2.5 at first. Adding that to our -7 catching, we get -4.5 runs defensively. Running that scenario, we get 4.30 WAR, which actually makes him more valuable than a full time, bad defensive catcher.

Again, I’ll reiterate, these are in no way “crystal ball” calculations. I’m just having a little fun here, seeing what Montero could be worth. Like all prospects, he could either wildly under-perform these calculations or he could out-perform them. Being fair, I think he’ll probably never be all that great in the field but he could definitely hit for something better than a .379 wOBA. Either way, I’m damn excited to follow Jesus for another season and I hope we can see him in the Bronx in September. Best of luck in 2010 to El Carpentiero.

Dan Le Betard wrote a fascinating column last week about the role of the media in the internet age, and I wanted to highlight some of his thoughts:

“Evolution” and “progress” are not always synonyms. The electric toothbrush is an example of that. So, too, our ability to now get dinner at the gas station. But because survival is the strongest instinct, in humans and in business, sports journalism is being forced to evolve into selling its principles and fairness (its soul, in other words) in exchange for clicks and cash, a trafficking not that far removed from porn.

(Porn is more honorable, actually. At least there, the participants agree to the transaction and get paid.)

It is either that or lose money and ratings and eyeballs to people who don’t make any kind of moral stand. The mainstream media might have wanted to stay out of the TMZ-ization of the Tiger Woods story on principle, but it literally couldn’t afford to do so because viewers were going to go find it somewhere. Show me the restaurant that tells you what you should be eating, instead of giving you what you want to consume, and I’ll show you an empty restaurant……

There’s also an interesting generation gap growing between old media, which is either aging or dying, and new media, which gets stronger by the day. Today’s kids — and kids are what make everything popular — don’t seem to be as judgmental as their parents. They want to see Portland center Greg Oden naked and the drunk photos of Texas center fielder Josh Hamilton just for the voyeuristic pleasure in it, not necessarily to judge it. And old media can’t keep ignoring those kind of desires, not if it wants to survive. It is hard not to notice that newspapers keep going out of business while TMZ Sports is scheduled to open this year.

While I do agree with the general sentiment of Dan’s column, that sports media is losing integrity as it embraces the voyeuristic tendencies of the Hollywood media, I do want to quibble with the bolded portion. Sports media is not being forced to sell its soul for clicks, it is choosing to do so. Analogizing to newspapers, the New York Post, the New York Times, and the National Enquirer have been sold at the same newsstands for many years. There is always a niche available for responsible, reasoned journalism, as there will always be an audience of fans that are not interested in voyeuristic stories that have little to do with the events on the field. Now, that niche may be less lucrative than the less principled route, but that does not change the fact that there is a choice being made every time a media outlet digs into Tiger Woods’ past.

I understand that as businesses, these outlets need to make decisions that will maximize revenues, and therefore do not begrudge them for moving away from the moralistic ideals that Le Betard pines for. However, for the writers, I think their choice remains obvious. If you got into journalism in order to report and comment on the news in a principled and moral fashion, and you feel that your outlet is forcing you to compromise those ideals, you can take the money or find a new employer. It is a simple decision, and I believe that both choices are equally valid. I have no problem with a reporter sacrificing his own ideals in order to support his family, and I have great respect for those who refuse to budge on what they believe in. But it is important to note, once you cross the line that Le Betard notes and sell your principles for clicks, you have lost some of your integrity.

Ultimately, journalistic integrity is the underpinning of a great sports writer or media outlet. In a climate where every story is picked apart within minutes, those who refrain from crossing those voyeuristic lines and do not seem to be trolling for clicks garner the most respect. Sites like Fire Joe Morgan sprung up because of the shift that Le Betard discusses, as writers began to make intentionally ridiculous statements in order to drive pageviews (of course, there are also those that are simply idiots). And yet, despite the constant fisking of journalism that lacks integrity, the media psyche continues to shift in the wrong direction.

A writer such as Ian O’Connor, who had an embarrassing column simply removed from the internet and continues to take shots at athletes for personal reasons (see recent A-Rod columns), was rewarded with a plum job at ESPN NY likely due to his ability to incite anger and drive page views. In the battle between dollars and integrity, the money is winning comfortably. And unless media outlets suddenly become uncomfortable with the sacrifices that they are making or the zeitgeist among fans shifts away from the more abhorrent voyeuristic elements of reporting, this is unlikely to change any time soon. Slowly, bit by bit, journalistic integrity in sports media is suffering an agonizing death, and we are largely powerless to stop it.

Edit: Just as an illustration of my point, see Bill Conlin’s response to the fact that he discussed the greatest infields of all time and left out the Reds of the 70’s:

“I covered Rose, Morgan and Perez when they were with the Phillies, know them well, and don’t really care what you post on your blog. I write a commentary column and it attracted an enormous response. That’s the coin of my realm and why I’m still drawing a paycheck 11 years past age 65. Thanks for helping to keep me in the game.”

Mr. Conlin, the job of a journalist is not to create controversy, it is to report and discuss the news. What you are doing makes you no better, and likely worse, than the bloggers that you so loathe.

From Sam Borden:

Girardi has said he hopes to make a decision during the final week of March, and — as pitch counts rise and workloads increase — he expects both Hughes and Chamberlain (as well as Mitre and Aceves) to start mixing consistent pitching in their areas of focus with positive results.

“After this one,” Girardi said, “we’re really going to start making our evaluations.”

Spring training results generally do not mean much, as pitchers are working on specific pitches and skills rather than taking the most effective approach towards attacking hitters. That said, if the Yankees feel the need to base their decisions on a three week competition, eventually results will have to enter the equation. I still believe Joba Chamberlain will win the spot, but further outings similar to his first two might preclude that. Beginning with his next start, results will matter. Hopefully, Joba will seize the opportunity.

According to Tom Krasovic of FanHouse (props to RAB), next Tuesday, the Yankees will announce the hiring of former Padres GM, Kevin Towers. Towers will serve as a special scouting assistant to his friend, Brian Cashman, and will begin working in that capacity following his introduction. A good baseball brain, Towers will be a valuable asset to the organization and is an exciting addition to the front office. It will be interesting to see what impact he has this year.

Right-handed relief prospect, Mark Melancon, previously hailed as Mariano Rivera’s successor because of his live heater and hard curve, tossed 16 1/3 innings last season posting a 3.86 ERA. A closer look at his numbers indicates a much weaker performance than his ERA suggests, however, as Melancon walked 5.51 batters per nine and only struck out an identical 5.51 batters per nine, leading to a 4.44 FIP. Not too impressive, right? This was obviously an extremely small sample though, a mere handful of nervous rookie innings that were atypical of the work Melancon had done while in the minor leagues. With just over 150 innings pitched in the Yankees’ farm system, the confident righty boasts a 2.54 ERA and a 0.906 WHIP, numbers which are understandable given his dominant minor-league peripherals (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9). Basically, down on the farm, he has been as effective as anyone could have hoped.

And so, I wonder, what will happen to Melancon this season? I definitely expect to see him, at some point, and believe he would be a tremendous asset to the team’s relief corps. Yet, with an already crowded bullpen, it seems the soon-to-be 25-year old will be slated for Scranton for most of the year, although someone could certainly falter or experience an injury that would alter such an outcome. CHONE projects Melancon to post a 4.42 FIP this season and Marcel sees a 4.23 FIP, but, given his legitimate success in the minors, his stuff, and his makeup, I’m inclined to believe FanGraphs’ fan projection, which forecasts the Colorado native as a 3.33 FIP pitcher with stellar peripherals. So far this spring, Melancon has appeared in 2 games, giving up 2 hits and striking out 3 over 2 2/3 innings pitched.

It’s a shame we won’t see Melancon more this season, but, I guess that is a testament to the team’s bullpen depth.

Photo by the AP

On Monday, I widened my scope on baseball and listed some players to watch for the NL West. Today, I’m gonna run down the not-too-highly-regarded National League Central Division. Despite producing a World Series winner recently–the 2006 Cardinals–fans, especially those of the AL East tend to think of the NL Central as one of the weakest divisions in the game. Regardless, there’s still some good talent there.

Let’s start, as we did with the NL West, with the 2009 division winner, the Cardinals. The guy we need to watch here is rather obvious: Colby Rasmus. As a rookie in ‘09, he put up “meh” numbers at the plate overall–a .311 wOBA–but his IsoP was a respectable .156. His fielding in center field was also impressive, as he posted a 13.4 UZR/150 in 124 games. In 2010, we should watch for Colby to continue his impressive fielding and also to improve on his hitting. He’s projected to wOBA anywhere from .329 (Marcel) to .343 (CHONE). Those numbers may not be “blow-you-away”, but paired with his fielding, they would make him about a three win player.

For the second place Cubs, there are two guys upon whom to keep an eye. The first is an old friend: Xavier Nady. After what was essentially a career year in ‘08, Nady missed most of 2009 with an elbow injury and is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. The list of position players coming back from a second TJS is rather small, so it will be very interesting to see how Xavier fares this year.

The second Cub to watch is Geovany Soto. After an impressive Rookie of the Year season in 2008, Soto disappointed in 2009. While the peripherals were pretty solid–.103 IsoD, .163 IsoP–his raw numbers were pretty bad: .218/.321/.381. Part of this could’ve been bad luck. His BABIP in 2008 was a robust .332, but was a meager .246 in 2009. Gevoany had a slight dip in Line Drive percentage and a slight uptick in Ground Ball percentage in 2009, and his Fly Ball percentage stayed essentially the same. While the rise in ground balls might suggest more hits (ground balls are more likely to sneak through the infield than fly balls are to drop in the outfield), it appears that they were gobbled up by infielders, which obviously led to more outs, as did the slight fall in line drives. If those numbers can rebound, it’s possible that the Cubs’ backstop will have another strong season.

Moving to Milwaukee, we move to the left side of the infield. With the trade of J.J. Hardy to the Twins, young Alcides Escobar will man shortstop for the Brew Crew. In 2009, he hit .304/.333/.381 in 38 games (134 PAs). Escobar is very fast and if he improves his patience at the plate a bit and plays well in the field, he’ll be a solid player for the Brewers in 2010.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto turned some head last year after a second place ROY finish in ‘08. He pounded the ball in ‘09–.303/.414/.567–and after dealing with an anxiety issue, he seems poised to pick up in 2010 where he left off. He hit 25 home runs last year and playing in Cincy, he’s definitely got a chance to crack thirty in 2010. First base is already rich with talent–Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Youkilis–and Joey Votto is ready to climb into the ranks of a top first baseman in the Major Leagues.

The Astros don’t really have much going for them. There isn’t much exciting young talent patrolling Houston, so I’m going to go with the vet: Lance Berkman. I pick Fat Elvis for a simple reason: I don’t think we realize how good this dude has been in his career. His line sits at .299/.412/.555/.967/147+. In an 11 season career, he’s gone at least .300/.400/.500 seven times and has had an OBP of at least .420 four times. Last year was a “down” year for Berkman–.274/.399/.509 and his OPS+ was “only” 139. It will be interesting to see how Berkman recovers. This year, and the next ones, will be crucial in cementing his legacy. If there is a quick decline–unlikely–it may rob him of Hall of Fame inclusion. If he picks it back up–or just stays at his current pace–Berkman should be destined for Cooperstown.

Pittsburgh, baseball wise, doesn’t usually have much to look forward to. However, Andrew McCutchen could change that. He was very impressive in his rookie season–11.0% BB rate, .185 IsoP, .368 wOBA, 128 wRC+–and we should all be looking to see what he builds on in 2010. We’ve likely got a budding star on our hands and even if it’s out of a misplaced, and probably inappropriate, sense of pity, it’s nice to see the Pirates have a young star they’ve developed on the rise.

This is a question I raised on Twitter earlier this week, and I thought it might be fun to address it in a longer format: if you could have cut Alex Rodriguez at the start of this offseason (obviously theoretical, as there is no “cutting” in baseball), with the knowledge that he would sign with another club after doing so, would you have done it? While on the face of it, the suggestion seems ridiculous, I think there are plenty of reasons it would make sense. Let’s look at the pros and cons of such a move:

Pros: The most obvious reason that the Yankees would cut A-Rod is financial. Here are the terms of his contract, courtesy of Cot’s:

08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
$30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)

Alex has 8 years and 186M dollars left on his deal, plus another 30M available in bonuses that he has a solid chance of reaching. After he resigned prior to the 2008 season, Dan Szymborski ran a Zips projection for the balance of the contract, and found the following:

The dollars and production start to be incongruent around 2013, and this projection was produced prior to Alex having major surgery and missing a month of the 2009 season. A similar projection run today would be even more frightening. As such, the last few years of Alex’s deal have a decent chance of being a disaster. If the Yankees were to cut Alex, they could take that same money and invest it in replacing his production and improving in multiple areas around the diamond. For example, you could have used that money this offseason to bring in Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, and likely would have lost little production.

Another reason that some might want to cut Alex is that he is always surrounded by drama. While I have contended that this is often through no fault of his own, it is simply the nature of being the game’s most expensive player that people will turn everything you do into a story. While this is not something that bothers me and would certainly not be a reason for me to cut him, I could understand if some people believe that it should at least be considered when weighing all options.

Cons: Alex is one of the best players in the game at this moment. While you could likely take his money and upgrade at a number of positions, it usually makes sense to concentrate as much value as possible in one position. Put differently, replacing a 7 win player with a 4 win guy and a 3 win guy means a loss in value, because it cost you an extra roster spot to create the same amount of value.

Now, the argument may be that as Alex ages, his production will decline to the point where that argument no longer holds true. For most clubs, this would mean that cutting Alex and reinvesting in younger players would be the most sensible solution. However, the Yankees can afford to carry some dead salary in the latter years of the deal in order to benefit the club now. Furthermore, the front-loaded nature of the contract will likely make the salary to production ratio a bit more palatable than it would be if the contract was considered in AAV terms. Finally, the publicity sure to follow Alex as he approaches various home run records will likely bring plenty of revenue to the Yankees, mostly in terms of merchandising, thereby offsetting some of the loss in value caused by declining production.

Personally, I would not have cut Alex, as the Yankees financial power allows me to sacrifice some money later for greater value now. However, I think it is a much closer call than it first appears. How about you? What would you have done?

George King of the NY Post has the story. It’s a short piece, but one with some juicy nuggets throughout. So I’ll post it in its entirety and break in with comments:

According to sources, the Yankees remain the favorites to sign Cuban shortstop Adeinis Hechavarria.

However, they have company in chasing the 21-year-old who defected from Cuba last year.

“There are five teams that are interested,’’ a source said.

I would expect his agent to say nothing else.

The Yankees have long been the favorites to land Hechavarria for two reasons: They have the money, and they have spent more time than any team scouting him. They have seen him in open workouts in the Dominican Republic and he has been to their complex in the DR several times to work out. The most recent trip was last week.

“He has a body like (Alfonso) Soriano,” a talent evaluator said of Hechavarria. “And he can hit.’’

That doesn’t tell us much in terms of skills, but if his swing resembles Soriano’s then that would be something to get excited about.  Soriano had very quick hands that generated plus power.

The Red Sox gave Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias $8 million, and it’s believed Hechavarria is looking for a similar figure.

“He is very proud to point out that he was the shortstop and Iglesias the second baseman when they played on the Cuban (junior) team,” a Dominican scout said.

That means that he was considered to be the better defensive player by his coaches. Reports are that Hechavarria is considered to have more power than Inglesias as well. Given the large bonus the Sox gave Inglesias and the reports that he could play with the big league club as early as this season, that tells me he could be close to MLB ready.

Hechavarria could be the Yankees’ second baseman. With Derek Jeter set to sign a long-term deal at the end of the season and shortstop the only place he can play, the Yankees could trade Robinson Cano after next season and make room for Hechavarria.

Next season is the final leg of Cano’s four-year, $30 million deal. There are options for 2012 ($14 million) and 2013 ($15 million).

Really? I hope this is just speculation on King’s part. Robbie Cano was an elite performer at his position both offensively and defensively last year. It could just be an early shot in the coming Cano contract negotiation, where adding Hechavarria gives the team added leverage. But Robbie’s going nowhere.

“Things are going very well,’’ Hechavarria’s agent, Bart Hernandez, said. “We should have news soon. The market has been strong. I can’t put a timetable on it, we are engaged with teams.’’

Stay tuned. . .